Goczałkowice Zdrój 1–0 Polonia-Stal Świdnica

Goczałkowice Zdrój

FT

1 – 0

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

6/5/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 36Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój62%

×Draw19%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Goczałkowice ZdrójExpected goals in this matchPolonia-Stal Świdnica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.21

Goczałkowice Zdrój

2.35

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.21

Goczałkowice Zdrój creates 94% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 18 away

1.59

creates per match

1.28

1.13

allows per match

3.11

creates per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.59

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

1.28

allows per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój

1.13

Polonia-Stal Świdnica

3.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goczałkowice Zdrój ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Goczałkowice Zdrój or draw

81%

Goczałkowice Zdrój or Polonia-Stal Świdnica

81%

Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica

38%

Winning margin

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+

40%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals

90%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals

68%

Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals

41%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals

70%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals

34%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)

77%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goczałkowice Zdrój at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.59 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.35

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more

62%

level

19%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more

19%

Goczałkowice Zdrój at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Goczałkowice Zdrój will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff