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Polonia-Stal Świdnica vs Gać Oława — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
FT
0 – 5
Gać Oława
Gać Oława
11/28/2020III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 19Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica41%
×Draw22%
Gać Oława37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.84
Gać Oława
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 35 away

creates per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.11
Gać Oława
1.00

allows per match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica
2.50
Gać Oława
2.57

finishing

Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par
Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia-Stal Świdnica ↓

Gać Oława →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Polonia-Stal Świdnica or draw
63%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica or Gać Oława
78%
Draw or Gać Oława
59%

Winning margin

Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
22%
Gać Oława wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
84%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
55%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
28%
Gać Oława 1+ goals
83%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
52%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
52%
Gać Oława (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia-Stal Świdnica at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.50 · 18 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.11 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.84

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
41%
level
22%
Gać Oława scores more
37%

Polonia-Stal Świdnica at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Polonia-Stal Świdnica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Polonia-Stal Świdnica 0–5 Gać Oława

Gać Oława beat Polonia-Stal Świdnica 5-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 28, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR w Świdnicy in Świdnica.