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Gać Oława vs Polonia-Stal Świdnica — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gać Oława
Gać Oława
FT
2 – 3
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
6/19/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 38Stadion w Gaciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Gać Oława48%
×Draw21%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gać Oława
2.20
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.75

Gać Oława creates 26% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 18 away

creates per match

Gać Oława
1.29
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
1.28

allows per match

Gać Oława
2.23
Polonia-Stal Świdnica
3.11

finishing

Gać Oława+0.00on par
Polonia-Stal Świdnica+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gać Oława ↓

Polonia-Stal Świdnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Gać Oława or draw
69%
Gać Oława or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
79%
Draw or Polonia-Stal Świdnica
52%

Winning margin

Gać Oława wins by 2+
28%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Gać Oława 1+ goals
89%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
64%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
37%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 1+ goals
83%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 2+ goals
52%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Gać Oława (draw refunded)
61%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gać Oława at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

Polonia-Stal Świdnica away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gać Oława attack 1.29 + Polonia-Stal Świdnica defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.20

Polonia-Stal Świdnica attack 1.28 + Gać Oława defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Gać Oława scores more
48%
level
21%
Polonia-Stal Świdnica scores more
31%

Gać Oława at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Gać Oława will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Gać Oława 2–3 Polonia-Stal Świdnica

Polonia-Stal Świdnica beat Gać Oława 3-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion w Gaciu in Gać.