Polonia Środa 4–2 Elana Toruń: Result & Stats

Polonia Środa

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 2

Elana Toruń

10/31/2024

III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 15Stadion 700-lecia Środy Wielkopolskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Polonia Środa40%

×Draw24%

Elana Toruń37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia ŚrodaExpected goals in this matchElana Toruń

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.53

Polonia Środa

1.60

Elana Toruń

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 78 away

1.94

creates per match

1.55

1.51

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Polonia Środa

1.94

Elana Toruń

1.55

allows per match

Polonia Środa

1.51

Elana Toruń

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Środa+0.00on par

Elana Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Środa ↓

Elana Toruń →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Polonia Środa or draw

63%

Polonia Środa or Elana Toruń

76%

Draw or Elana Toruń

60%

Winning margin

Polonia Środa wins by 2+

20%

Elana Toruń wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Polonia Środa 1+ goals

80%

Polonia Środa 2+ goals

47%

Polonia Środa 3+ goals

22%

Elana Toruń 1+ goals

78%

Elana Toruń 2+ goals

45%

Elana Toruń 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Polonia Środa (draw refunded)

52%

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Środa at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.51 · 102 matches

Elana Toruń away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Środa attack 1.94 + Elana Toruń defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.60

Elana Toruń attack 1.55 + Polonia Środa defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Polonia Środa scores more

40%

level

24%

Elana Toruń scores more

37%

Polonia Środa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Polonia Środa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff