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Elana Toruń vs Polonia Środa — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Elana Toruń
Elana Toruń
FT
2 – 3
Polonia Środa
Polonia Środa
3/16/2024III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 21Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Elana Toruń41%
×Draw24%
Polonia Środa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Elana Toruń
1.57
Polonia Środa
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 101 away

creates per match

Elana Toruń
1.60
Polonia Środa
1.74

allows per match

Elana Toruń
1.14
Polonia Środa
1.54

finishing

Elana Toruń+0.00on par
Polonia Środa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Elana Toruń ↓

Polonia Środa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Elana Toruń or draw
65%
Elana Toruń or Polonia Środa
76%
Draw or Polonia Środa
59%

Winning margin

Elana Toruń wins by 2+
20%
Polonia Środa wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Elana Toruń 1+ goals
79%
Elana Toruń 2+ goals
46%
Elana Toruń 3+ goals
21%
Polonia Środa 1+ goals
76%
Polonia Środa 2+ goals
42%
Polonia Środa 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Elana Toruń (draw refunded)
54%
Polonia Środa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Elana Toruń at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.14 · 77 matches

Polonia Środa away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.54 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Elana Toruń attack 1.60 + Polonia Środa defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.57

Polonia Środa attack 1.74 + Elana Toruń defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Elana Toruń scores more
41%
level
24%
Polonia Środa scores more
35%

Elana Toruń at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Elana Toruń will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Elana Toruń 2–3 Polonia Środa

Polonia Środa beat Elana Toruń 3-2 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Grzegorza Duneckiego in Toruń.