Polonia Słubice 0–3 Górnik Polkowice

Polonia Słubice

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Górnik Polkowice

8/24/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Stadion SOSiR

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polonia Słubice16%

×Draw22%

Górnik Polkowice62%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia SłubiceExpected goals in this matchGórnik Polkowice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.87

1.92

Polonia Słubice

0.87

Górnik Polkowice

1.92

Górnik Polkowice creates 121% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

0.41

creates per match

1.55

2.29

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Polonia Słubice

0.41

Górnik Polkowice

1.55

allows per match

Polonia Słubice

2.29

Górnik Polkowice

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Słubice+0.00on par

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Słubice ↓

Górnik Polkowice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–112%

0–211%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Polonia Słubice or draw

38%

Polonia Słubice or Górnik Polkowice

78%

Draw or Górnik Polkowice

84%

Winning margin

Polonia Słubice wins by 2+

5%

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Polonia Słubice 1+ goals

58%

Polonia Słubice 2+ goals

22%

Polonia Słubice 3+ goals

6%

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

85%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

57%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Polonia Słubice (draw refunded)

21%

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Słubice at home — creates 0.41, concedes 2.29 · 17 matches

Górnik Polkowice away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Słubice attack 0.41 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.87

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.55 + Polonia Słubice defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Polonia Słubice scores more

16%

level

22%

Górnik Polkowice scores more

62%

Górnik Polkowice at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff