Górnik Polkowice 2–0 Polonia Słubice

Górnik Polkowice

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Polonia Słubice

3/21/2025

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 22Stadion Górnik

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Górnik Polkowice69%

×Draw18%

Polonia Słubice13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Górnik PolkowiceExpected goals in this matchPolonia Słubice

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.90

Górnik Polkowice

2.33

Polonia Słubice

0.90

Górnik Polkowice creates 159% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

1.72

creates per match

0.53

1.26

allows per match

2.94

creates per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.72

Polonia Słubice

0.53

allows per match

Górnik Polkowice

1.26

Polonia Słubice

2.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Górnik Polkowice+0.00on par

Polonia Słubice+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Polkowice ↓

Polonia Słubice →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Górnik Polkowice or draw

87%

Górnik Polkowice or Polonia Słubice

82%

Draw or Polonia Słubice

31%

Winning margin

Górnik Polkowice wins by 2+

46%

Polonia Słubice wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Górnik Polkowice 1+ goals

90%

Górnik Polkowice 2+ goals

67%

Górnik Polkowice 3+ goals

41%

Polonia Słubice 1+ goals

59%

Polonia Słubice 2+ goals

23%

Polonia Słubice 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Górnik Polkowice (draw refunded)

84%

Polonia Słubice (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Polkowice at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.26 · 50 matches

Polonia Słubice away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Polkowice attack 1.72 + Polonia Słubice defence 2.94 → ÷2 → 2.33

Polonia Słubice attack 0.53 + Górnik Polkowice defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Górnik Polkowice scores more

69%

level

18%

Polonia Słubice scores more

13%

Górnik Polkowice at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Górnik Polkowice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff