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Polonia Nysa vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
A. Majerski 50' (pen)
M. Zimon 45'
S. Paczko 90'
B. Czuban 14' (pen)
M. Biskup 11' (pen)
9/3/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 6Stadion KS Polonia Nysa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Polonia Nysa41%
×Draw24%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Nysa
1.60
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

creates per match

Polonia Nysa
1.37
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Polonia Nysa
1.58
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Polonia Nysa+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Nysa ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Polonia Nysa or draw
65%
Polonia Nysa or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
76%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
59%

Winning margin

Polonia Nysa wins by 2+
20%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Polonia Nysa 1+ goals
80%
Polonia Nysa 2+ goals
47%
Polonia Nysa 3+ goals
22%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
77%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
43%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Polonia Nysa (draw refunded)
53%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Nysa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.58 · 52 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Nysa attack 1.37 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.60

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Polonia Nysa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Polonia Nysa scores more
41%
level
24%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
35%

Polonia Nysa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Polonia Nysa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. BiskupPenalty
14'
B. CzubanPenalty
45'
M. Zimon
50'
A. MajerskiPenalty
56'
B. Nasciszewski
90'
S. Paczko

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Polonia Nysa 2–3 Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry beat Polonia Nysa 3-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 3, 2022.

Goals: M. Biskup (11' pen), B. Czuban (14' pen), M. Zimon (45'), A. Majerski (50' pen), S. Paczko (90').

The match was played at Stadion KS Polonia Nysa in Nysa.