Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Polonia Nysa — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
1 – 0
Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa
4/8/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry49%
×Draw23%
Polonia Nysa28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.83
Polonia Nysa
1.32

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry creates 39% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 51 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Polonia Nysa
1.20

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Polonia Nysa
2.18

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Polonia Nysa+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Polonia Nysa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
72%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Polonia Nysa
77%
Draw or Polonia Nysa
51%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
27%
Polonia Nysa wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
84%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
54%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
28%
Polonia Nysa 1+ goals
73%
Polonia Nysa 2+ goals
38%
Polonia Nysa 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
64%
Polonia Nysa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Polonia Nysa away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Polonia Nysa defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.83

Polonia Nysa attack 1.20 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
49%
level
23%
Polonia Nysa scores more
28%

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Polonia Nysa

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry beat Polonia Nysa 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.