Polonia Nysa 1–2 Gać Oława: Result & Stats

Polonia Nysa

FT

1 – 2

Gać Oława

8/1/2020

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion KS Polonia Nysa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Polonia Nysa53%

×Draw22%

Gać Oława25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia NysaExpected goals in this matchGać Oława

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.29

Polonia Nysa

1.97

Gać Oława

1.29

Polonia Nysa creates 53% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 35 away

1.37

creates per match

1.00

1.58

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Polonia Nysa

1.37

Gać Oława

1.00

allows per match

Polonia Nysa

1.58

Gać Oława

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Nysa+0.00on par

Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Nysa ↓

Gać Oława →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Polonia Nysa or draw

75%

Polonia Nysa or Gać Oława

78%

Draw or Gać Oława

47%

Winning margin

Polonia Nysa wins by 2+

31%

Gać Oława wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Polonia Nysa 1+ goals

86%

Polonia Nysa 2+ goals

58%

Polonia Nysa 3+ goals

31%

Gać Oława 1+ goals

72%

Gać Oława 2+ goals

37%

Gać Oława 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Polonia Nysa (draw refunded)

68%

Gać Oława (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Nysa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.58 · 52 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Nysa attack 1.37 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.97

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Polonia Nysa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Polonia Nysa scores more

53%

level

22%

Gać Oława scores more

25%

Polonia Nysa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Polonia Nysa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff