Gać Oława 3–3 Polonia Nysa: Result & Stats

Gać Oława

FT

3 – 3

Polonia Nysa

P. Pytel 75'

M. Przybylski 63', 30'

A. Setla 85', 58', 47'

3/6/2021

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Stadion w Gaciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gać Oława39%

×Draw23%

Polonia Nysa38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gać OławaExpected goals in this matchPolonia Nysa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.71

Gać Oława

1.74

Polonia Nysa

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 51 away

1.29

creates per match

1.20

2.23

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Gać Oława

1.29

Polonia Nysa

1.20

allows per match

Gać Oława

2.23

Polonia Nysa

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gać Oława+0.00on par

Polonia Nysa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gać Oława ↓

Polonia Nysa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Gać Oława or draw

62%

Gać Oława or Polonia Nysa

77%

Draw or Polonia Nysa

61%

Winning margin

Gać Oława wins by 2+

20%

Polonia Nysa wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Gać Oława 1+ goals

82%

Gać Oława 2+ goals

52%

Gać Oława 3+ goals

25%

Polonia Nysa 1+ goals

82%

Polonia Nysa 2+ goals

51%

Polonia Nysa 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Gać Oława (draw refunded)

51%

Polonia Nysa (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gać Oława at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

Polonia Nysa away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gać Oława attack 1.29 + Polonia Nysa defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.74

Polonia Nysa attack 1.20 + Gać Oława defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Gać Oława scores more

39%

level

23%

Polonia Nysa scores more

38%

Gać Oława at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Gać Oława will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

47'

58'

63'

75'

P. Pytel

85'

A. Setla

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff