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Polonia Nysa vs Chrobry Głogów II — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia Nysa
Polonia Nysa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
A. Majerski 52'
9/10/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion KS Polonia Nysa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polonia Nysa40%
×Draw26%
Chrobry Głogów II34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Nysa
1.42
Chrobry Głogów II
1.29

Polonia Nysa creates 10% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 17 away

creates per match

Polonia Nysa
1.37
Chrobry Głogów II
1.00

allows per match

Polonia Nysa
1.58
Chrobry Głogów II
1.47

finishing

Polonia Nysa+0.00on par
Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Nysa ↓

Chrobry Głogów II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Polonia Nysa or draw
66%
Polonia Nysa or Chrobry Głogów II
74%
Draw or Chrobry Głogów II
60%

Winning margin

Polonia Nysa wins by 2+
19%
Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Polonia Nysa 1+ goals
76%
Polonia Nysa 2+ goals
41%
Polonia Nysa 3+ goals
17%
Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
72%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
37%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Polonia Nysa (draw refunded)
54%
Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Nysa at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.58 · 52 matches

Chrobry Głogów II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Nysa attack 1.37 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.00 + Polonia Nysa defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Polonia Nysa scores more
40%
level
26%
Chrobry Głogów II scores more
34%

Polonia Nysa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Polonia Nysa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'
A. Majerski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Nysa vs Chrobry Głogów II

Polonia Nysa beat Chrobry Głogów II 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 10, 2022.

Goals: A. Majerski (52').

The match was played at Stadion KS Polonia Nysa in Nysa.