Chrobry Głogów II 2–3 Polonia Nysa: Result & Stats

Chrobry Głogów II

FT

2 – 3

Polonia Nysa

4/16/2023

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 24MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów II37%

×Draw22%

Polonia Nysa41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chrobry Głogów IIExpected goals in this matchPolonia Nysa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.92

Chrobry Głogów II

1.83

Polonia Nysa

1.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

1.47

creates per match

1.20

2.65

allows per match

2.18

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów II

1.47

Polonia Nysa

1.20

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów II

2.65

Polonia Nysa

2.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Polonia Nysa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów II ↓

Polonia Nysa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów II or draw

59%

Chrobry Głogów II or Polonia Nysa

78%

Draw or Polonia Nysa

63%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+

20%

Polonia Nysa wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals

84%

Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals

54%

Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals

28%

Polonia Nysa 1+ goals

85%

Polonia Nysa 2+ goals

57%

Polonia Nysa 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)

48%

Polonia Nysa (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Polonia Nysa away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.18 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.47 + Polonia Nysa defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.83

Polonia Nysa attack 1.20 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Chrobry Głogów II scores more

37%

level

22%

Polonia Nysa scores more

41%

Polonia Nysa at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Polonia Nysa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff