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Polonia Bytom vs Pogoń Siedlce — I Liga 2018

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
2/22/2026I LigaI Liga · Round 22Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polonia Bytom52%
×Draw24%
Pogoń Siedlce23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
1.68
Pogoń Siedlce
1.04

Polonia Bytom creates 62% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
1.82
Pogoń Siedlce
0.97

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
1.12
Pogoń Siedlce
1.53

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Pogoń Siedlce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
77%
Polonia Bytom or Pogoń Siedlce
76%
Draw or Pogoń Siedlce
48%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
28%
Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
81%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
50%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
24%
Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
65%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
28%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
69%
Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.12 · 17 matches

Pogoń Siedlce away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 1.82 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.68

Pogoń Siedlce attack 0.97 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
52%
level
24%
Pogoń Siedlce scores more
23%

Polonia Bytom at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

I Liga: Polonia Bytom 1–1 Pogoń Siedlce

Polonia Bytom and Pogoń Siedlce drew 1-1 in I Liga on February 22, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka in Bytom.