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Pogoń Siedlce vs Polonia Bytom — II Liga - East 2019

Pogoń Siedlce
Pogoń Siedlce
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
3/17/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 24Stadion ROSRRiT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Pogoń Siedlce38%
×Draw26%
Polonia Bytom36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogoń Siedlce
1.37
Polonia Bytom
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 35 away

creates per match

Pogoń Siedlce
1.48
Polonia Bytom
1.26

allows per match

Pogoń Siedlce
1.42
Polonia Bytom
1.26

finishing

Pogoń Siedlce+0.00on par
Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogoń Siedlce ↓

Polonia Bytom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pogoń Siedlce or draw
64%
Pogoń Siedlce or Polonia Bytom
74%
Draw or Polonia Bytom
62%

Winning margin

Pogoń Siedlce wins by 2+
17%
Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Pogoń Siedlce 1+ goals
75%
Pogoń Siedlce 2+ goals
40%
Pogoń Siedlce 3+ goals
16%
Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
74%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
39%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pogoń Siedlce (draw refunded)
51%
Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogoń Siedlce at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 85 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogoń Siedlce attack 1.48 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Polonia Bytom attack 1.26 + Pogoń Siedlce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pogoń Siedlce scores more
38%
level
26%
Polonia Bytom scores more
36%

Pogoń Siedlce at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pogoń Siedlce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Pogoń Siedlce 3–3 Polonia Bytom

Pogoń Siedlce and Polonia Bytom drew 3-3 in II Liga - East on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion ROSRRiT in Siedlce.