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Polonia Bytom vs Odra Wodzislaw — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
2 – 0
Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
D. Krzemien 90'
D. Celuch 58'
11/12/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 17Stadion Szombierek Bytom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polonia Bytom63%
×Draw19%
Odra Wodzislaw18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
2.31
Odra Wodzislaw
1.16

Polonia Bytom creates 99% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 34 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
2.33
Odra Wodzislaw
1.35

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
0.96
Odra Wodzislaw
2.29

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
82%
Polonia Bytom or Odra Wodzislaw
81%
Draw or Odra Wodzislaw
37%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
40%
Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
90%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
67%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
40%
Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
69%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
32%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
78%
Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.96 · 52 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.33 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.31

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Polonia Bytom defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
63%
level
19%
Odra Wodzislaw scores more
18%

Polonia Bytom at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'
D. Celuch
90'
D. Krzemien

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Polonia Bytom 2–0 Odra Wodzislaw

Polonia Bytom beat Odra Wodzislaw 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 12, 2021.

Goals: D. Celuch (58'), D. Krzemien (90').

The match was played at Stadion Szombierek Bytom in Bytom.