Odra Wodzislaw 1–5 Polonia Bytom: Result & Stats

Odra Wodzislaw

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Polonia Bytom

10/22/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Gosław Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw27%

×Draw21%

Polonia Bytom52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odra WodzislawExpected goals in this matchPolonia Bytom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

2.05

Odra Wodzislaw

1.42

Polonia Bytom

2.05

Polonia Bytom creates 44% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

1.68

creates per match

1.92

2.18

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw

1.68

Polonia Bytom

1.92

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw

2.18

Polonia Bytom

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Polonia Bytom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw

48%

Odra Wodzislaw or Polonia Bytom

79%

Draw or Polonia Bytom

73%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+

12%

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals

76%

Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals

41%

Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals

17%

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals

87%

Polonia Bytom 2+ goals

61%

Polonia Bytom 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)

34%

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.42

Polonia Bytom attack 1.92 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more

27%

level

21%

Polonia Bytom scores more

52%

Polonia Bytom at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff