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Polonia Bytom vs Lech Poznań II — II Liga - East 2019

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Lech Poznań II
Lech Poznań II
5/25/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 34Stadion Polonii Bytom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polonia Bytom56%
×Draw22%
Lech Poznań II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
1.96
Lech Poznań II
1.15

Polonia Bytom creates 70% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 86 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
2.38
Lech Poznań II
1.14

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
1.15
Lech Poznań II
1.55

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Lech Poznań II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
78%
Polonia Bytom or Lech Poznań II
78%
Draw or Lech Poznań II
44%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
33%
Lech Poznań II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
86%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
58%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
31%
Lech Poznań II 1+ goals
68%
Lech Poznań II 2+ goals
32%
Lech Poznań II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
72%
Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Lech Poznań II away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.55 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.38 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.96

Lech Poznań II attack 1.14 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
56%
level
22%
Lech Poznań II scores more
22%

Polonia Bytom at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Bytom vs Lech Poznań II

Polonia Bytom beat Lech Poznań II 3-0 in II Liga - East on May 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii Bytom in Bytom.