Lech Poznań II 1–0 Polonia Bytom: Result & Stats

Lech Poznań II

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Polonia Bytom

11/12/2023

II Liga - East · Round 17Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Lech Poznań II35%

×Draw26%

Polonia Bytom39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lech Poznań IIExpected goals in this matchPolonia Bytom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.38

Lech Poznań II

1.31

Polonia Bytom

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 35 away

1.35

creates per match

1.26

1.49

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Lech Poznań II

1.35

Polonia Bytom

1.26

allows per match

Lech Poznań II

1.49

Polonia Bytom

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lech Poznań II+0.00on par

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznań II ↓

Polonia Bytom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lech Poznań II or draw

61%

Lech Poznań II or Polonia Bytom

74%

Draw or Polonia Bytom

65%

Winning margin

Lech Poznań II wins by 2+

16%

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Lech Poznań II 1+ goals

73%

Lech Poznań II 2+ goals

38%

Lech Poznań II 3+ goals

14%

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals

75%

Polonia Bytom 2+ goals

40%

Polonia Bytom 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznań II (draw refunded)

48%

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznań II at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.49 · 85 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznań II attack 1.35 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.31

Polonia Bytom attack 1.26 + Lech Poznań II defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Lech Poznań II scores more

35%

level

26%

Polonia Bytom scores more

39%

Polonia Bytom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff