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Polonia Bytom vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg — II Liga - East 2019

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
11/18/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 18Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polonia Bytom49%
×Draw22%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
1.94
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.43

Polonia Bytom creates 36% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 34 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
2.38
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.71

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
1.15
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.50

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Kotwica Kołobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
71%
Polonia Bytom or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
78%
Draw or Kotwica Kołobrzeg
51%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
28%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
86%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
58%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
30%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
76%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
42%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
63%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.50 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.38 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.94

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.71 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
49%
level
22%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
29%

Polonia Bytom at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Bytom vs Kotwica Kołobrzeg

Polonia Bytom and Kotwica Kołobrzeg drew 3-3 in II Liga - East on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka in Bytom.