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Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Polonia Bytom — II Liga - East 2019

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
7/22/2023II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 1Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg44%
×Draw28%
Polonia Bytom29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.33
Polonia Bytom
1.02

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 30% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.41
Polonia Bytom
1.26

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.79
Polonia Bytom
1.26

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par
Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Polonia Bytom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw
71%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Polonia Bytom
72%
Draw or Polonia Bytom
56%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
20%
Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
74%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
38%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
15%
Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
64%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
27%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
60%
Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.41 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.33

Polonia Bytom attack 1.26 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
44%
level
28%
Polonia Bytom scores more
29%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Polonia Bytom

Polonia Bytom beat Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1-0 in II Liga - East on July 22, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.