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Polonia Bytom vs Jastrzębie — II Liga - East 2019

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
3/8/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 23Stadion Polonii Bytom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Polonia Bytom59%
×Draw21%
Jastrzębie20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
2.00
Jastrzębie
1.06

Polonia Bytom creates 89% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 63 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
2.38
Jastrzębie
0.98

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
1.15
Jastrzębie
1.62

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Jastrzębie+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Jastrzębie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
80%
Polonia Bytom or Jastrzębie
79%
Draw or Jastrzębie
41%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
35%
Jastrzębie wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
86%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
59%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
32%
Jastrzębie 1+ goals
65%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
29%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
75%
Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.15 · 34 matches

Jastrzębie away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.62 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.38 + Jastrzębie defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 2.00

Jastrzębie attack 0.98 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
59%
level
21%
Jastrzębie scores more
20%

Polonia Bytom at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

II Liga - East: Polonia Bytom 0–0 Jastrzębie

Polonia Bytom and Jastrzębie drew 0-0 in II Liga - East on March 8, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Polonii Bytom in Bytom.