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Jastrzębie vs Polonia Bytom — II Liga - East 2019

Jastrzębie
Jastrzębie
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
8/17/2024II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 5Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Jastrzębie36%
×Draw27%
Polonia Bytom37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jastrzębie
1.23
Polonia Bytom
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 35 away

creates per match

Jastrzębie
1.19
Polonia Bytom
1.26

allows per match

Jastrzębie
1.25
Polonia Bytom
1.26

finishing

Jastrzębie+0.00on par
Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jastrzębie ↓

Polonia Bytom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Jastrzębie or draw
63%
Jastrzębie or Polonia Bytom
73%
Draw or Polonia Bytom
64%

Winning margin

Jastrzębie wins by 2+
15%
Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Jastrzębie 1+ goals
71%
Jastrzębie 2+ goals
35%
Jastrzębie 3+ goals
13%
Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
71%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
36%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Jastrzębie (draw refunded)
49%
Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jastrzębie at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 63 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.26 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jastrzębie attack 1.19 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Polonia Bytom attack 1.26 + Jastrzębie defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Jastrzębie scores more
36%
level
27%
Polonia Bytom scores more
37%

Polonia Bytom at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Jastrzębie vs Polonia Bytom

Polonia Bytom beat Jastrzębie 4-2 in II Liga - East on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Jastrzębie Zdrój.