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Polonia Bytom vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
O. Tkachuk 90' (pen)
5/7/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Polonia Bytom58%
×Draw21%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
2.08
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.17

Polonia Bytom creates 78% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 69 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
2.33
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.39

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
0.96
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.84

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
79%
Polonia Bytom or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
79%
Draw or Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
42%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
35%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
87%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
61%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
34%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
69%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
33%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
73%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.96 · 52 matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.33 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.08

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.39 + Polonia Bytom defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
58%
level
21%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
21%

Polonia Bytom at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90'
O. TkachukPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Polonia Bytom vs Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry

Polonia Bytom beat Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 7, 2022.

Goals: O. Tkachuk (90' pen).

The match was played at Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka in Bytom.