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Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry vs Polonia Bytom — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
M. Rakowiecki 53'
K. Ropski 90+5'
F. Zagiel 31'
D. Wolny 6'
3/18/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry30%
×Draw24%
Polonia Bytom46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.32
Polonia Bytom
1.69

Polonia Bytom creates 28% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 52 away

creates per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.49
Polonia Bytom
1.92

allows per match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry
1.45
Polonia Bytom
1.15

finishing

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry+0.00on par
Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry ↓

Polonia Bytom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or draw
54%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry or Polonia Bytom
76%
Draw or Polonia Bytom
70%

Winning margin

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry wins by 2+
13%
Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1+ goals
73%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 2+ goals
38%
Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3+ goals
15%
Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
82%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
50%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry (draw refunded)
39%
Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.45 · 69 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry attack 1.49 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Polonia Bytom attack 1.92 + Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry scores more
30%
level
24%
Polonia Bytom scores more
46%

Polonia Bytom at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
D. Wolny
31'
F. Zagiel
53'
M. Rakowiecki
55'
64'
T. GajdaMissed penalty
67'
90+5'
K. Ropski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 1–3 Polonia Bytom

Polonia Bytom beat Gwarek Tarnowskie Góry 3-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 18, 2023.

Goals: D. Wolny (6'), F. Zagiel (31'), M. Rakowiecki (53'), K. Ropski (90+5').

The match was played at Stadion Towarzystwa Sportowego Gwarek in Tarnowskie Góry.