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Polonia Bytom vs Goczałkowice Zdrój — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1/13/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Polonia Bytom39%
×Draw23%
Goczałkowice Zdrój38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polonia Bytom
1.67
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 10 away

creates per match

Polonia Bytom
1.53
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.30

allows per match

Polonia Bytom
2.00
Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.80

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par
Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Goczałkowice Zdrój →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw
62%
Polonia Bytom or Goczałkowice Zdrój
77%
Draw or Goczałkowice Zdrój
61%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
20%
Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
81%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
50%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
23%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
81%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
49%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
51%
Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 1.53, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.80 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 1.53 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.67

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.30 + Polonia Bytom defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more
39%
level
23%
Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
38%

Polonia Bytom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Polonia Bytom 1–0 Goczałkowice Zdrój

Polonia Bytom beat Goczałkowice Zdrój 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 13, 2024.