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Goczałkowice Zdrój vs Polonia Bytom — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Goczałkowice Zdrój
Goczałkowice Zdrój
FT
2 – 0
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
8/18/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadion Gminny

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Goczałkowice Zdrój34%
×Draw25%
Polonia Bytom41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.37
Polonia Bytom
1.52

Polonia Bytom creates 11% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 52 away

creates per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.59
Polonia Bytom
1.92

allows per match

Goczałkowice Zdrój
1.13
Polonia Bytom
1.15

finishing

Goczałkowice Zdrój+0.00on par
Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Goczałkowice Zdrój ↓

Polonia Bytom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Goczałkowice Zdrój or draw
59%
Goczałkowice Zdrój or Polonia Bytom
75%
Draw or Polonia Bytom
66%

Winning margin

Goczałkowice Zdrój wins by 2+
15%
Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Goczałkowice Zdrój 1+ goals
75%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 2+ goals
40%
Goczałkowice Zdrój 3+ goals
16%
Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
78%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
45%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Goczałkowice Zdrój (draw refunded)
46%
Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Goczałkowice Zdrój at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Goczałkowice Zdrój attack 1.59 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.37

Polonia Bytom attack 1.92 + Goczałkowice Zdrój defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Goczałkowice Zdrój scores more
34%
level
25%
Polonia Bytom scores more
41%

Polonia Bytom at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Goczałkowice Zdrój 2–0 Polonia Bytom

Goczałkowice Zdrój beat Polonia Bytom 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Gminny in Goczałkowice-Zdrój.