Polonia Bytom 9–0 Gać Oława: Result & Stats

Polonia Bytom

FT

9 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Gać Oława

6/4/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 32Stadion im. Edwarda Szymkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Polonia Bytom69%

×Draw17%

Gać Oława13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polonia BytomExpected goals in this matchGać Oława

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

0.98

Polonia Bytom

2.45

Gać Oława

0.98

Polonia Bytom creates 150% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 35 away

2.33

creates per match

1.00

0.96

allows per match

2.57

creates per match

Polonia Bytom

2.33

Gać Oława

1.00

allows per match

Polonia Bytom

0.96

Gać Oława

2.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Gać Oława+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polonia Bytom ↓

Gać Oława →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Polonia Bytom or draw

87%

Polonia Bytom or Gać Oława

83%

Draw or Gać Oława

31%

Winning margin

Polonia Bytom wins by 2+

47%

Gać Oława wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Polonia Bytom 1+ goals

91%

Polonia Bytom 2+ goals

70%

Polonia Bytom 3+ goals

44%

Gać Oława 1+ goals

62%

Gać Oława 2+ goals

26%

Gać Oława 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)

84%

Gać Oława (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polonia Bytom at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.96 · 52 matches

Gać Oława away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.57 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polonia Bytom attack 2.33 + Gać Oława defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 2.45

Gać Oława attack 1.00 + Polonia Bytom defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Polonia Bytom scores more

69%

level

17%

Gać Oława scores more

13%

Polonia Bytom at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff