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Gać Oława vs Polonia Bytom — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Gać Oława
Gać Oława
FT
0 – 1
Polonia Bytom
Polonia Bytom
10/30/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadion w Gaciu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gać Oława22%
×Draw21%
Polonia Bytom57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gać Oława
1.22
Polonia Bytom
2.08

Polonia Bytom creates 70% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 52 away

creates per match

Gać Oława
1.29
Polonia Bytom
1.92

allows per match

Gać Oława
2.23
Polonia Bytom
1.15

finishing

Gać Oława+0.00on par
Polonia Bytom+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gać Oława ↓

Polonia Bytom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Gać Oława or draw
43%
Gać Oława or Polonia Bytom
79%
Draw or Polonia Bytom
78%

Winning margin

Gać Oława wins by 2+
9%
Polonia Bytom wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Gać Oława 1+ goals
70%
Gać Oława 2+ goals
34%
Gać Oława 3+ goals
12%
Polonia Bytom 1+ goals
87%
Polonia Bytom 2+ goals
61%
Polonia Bytom 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Gać Oława (draw refunded)
28%
Polonia Bytom (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gać Oława at home — creates 1.29, concedes 2.23 · 35 matches

Polonia Bytom away — creates 1.92, concedes 1.15 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gać Oława attack 1.29 + Polonia Bytom defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.22

Polonia Bytom attack 1.92 + Gać Oława defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gać Oława scores more
22%
level
21%
Polonia Bytom scores more
57%

Polonia Bytom at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Polonia Bytom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Gać Oława 0–1 Polonia Bytom

Polonia Bytom beat Gać Oława 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion w Gaciu in Gać.