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Polokwane City vs Chippa United — Premier Soccer League 2018

Polokwane City
Polokwane City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Chippa United
Chippa United
9/21/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 7Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Polokwane City42%
×Draw30%
Chippa United28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polokwane City
1.17
Chippa United
0.91

Polokwane City creates 29% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 120 away

creates per match

Polokwane City
1.00
Chippa United
0.82

allows per match

Polokwane City
0.99
Chippa United
1.33

finishing

Polokwane City+0.00on par
Chippa United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polokwane City ↓

Chippa United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Polokwane City or draw
72%
Polokwane City or Chippa United
70%
Draw or Chippa United
58%

Winning margin

Polokwane City wins by 2+
18%
Chippa United wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Polokwane City 1+ goals
69%
Polokwane City 2+ goals
33%
Polokwane City 3+ goals
11%
Chippa United 1+ goals
60%
Chippa United 2+ goals
23%
Chippa United 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Polokwane City (draw refunded)
60%
Chippa United (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polokwane City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 74 matches

Chippa United away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polokwane City attack 1.00 + Chippa United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Chippa United attack 0.82 + Polokwane City defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Polokwane City scores more
42%
level
30%
Chippa United scores more
28%

Polokwane City at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Polokwane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Polokwane City 2–1 Chippa United

Polokwane City beat Chippa United 2-1 in Premier Soccer League on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Polokwane.