Chippa United 1–1 Polokwane City: Result & Stats

Chippa United

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Polokwane City

4/11/2026

Premier Soccer League · Round 24Buffalo City Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Chippa United36%

×Draw33%

Polokwane City31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chippa UnitedExpected goals in this matchPolokwane City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.93

0.83

Chippa United

0.93

Polokwane City

0.83

Chippa United creates 12% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 75 away

0.81

creates per match

0.68

0.99

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Chippa United

0.81

Polokwane City

0.68

allows per match

Chippa United

0.99

Polokwane City

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chippa United+0.00on par

Polokwane City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chippa United ↓

Polokwane City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Chippa United or draw

69%

Chippa United or Polokwane City

67%

Draw or Polokwane City

64%

Winning margin

Chippa United wins by 2+

13%

Polokwane City wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chippa United 1+ goals

61%

Chippa United 2+ goals

24%

Chippa United 3+ goals

7%

Polokwane City 1+ goals

56%

Polokwane City 2+ goals

20%

Polokwane City 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Chippa United (draw refunded)

54%

Polokwane City (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chippa United at home — creates 0.81, concedes 0.99 · 120 matches

Polokwane City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.05 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chippa United attack 0.81 + Polokwane City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.93

Polokwane City attack 0.68 + Chippa United defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Chippa United scores more

36%

level

33%

Polokwane City scores more

31%

Chippa United at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Chippa United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff