Polokwane City 0–1 Bloem Celtic: Result & Stats

Polokwane City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Bloem Celtic

11/30/2019

Premier Soccer League · Round 10Pietersburg Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Polokwane City41%

×Draw29%

Bloem Celtic30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polokwane CityExpected goals in this matchBloem Celtic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.00

Polokwane City

1.23

Bloem Celtic

1.00

Polokwane City creates 23% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 45 away

1.00

creates per match

1.02

0.99

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Polokwane City

1.00

Bloem Celtic

1.02

allows per match

Polokwane City

0.99

Bloem Celtic

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polokwane City+0.00on par

Bloem Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polokwane City ↓

Bloem Celtic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Polokwane City or draw

70%

Polokwane City or Bloem Celtic

71%

Draw or Bloem Celtic

59%

Winning margin

Polokwane City wins by 2+

18%

Bloem Celtic wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Polokwane City 1+ goals

71%

Polokwane City 2+ goals

35%

Polokwane City 3+ goals

13%

Bloem Celtic 1+ goals

63%

Bloem Celtic 2+ goals

26%

Bloem Celtic 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Polokwane City (draw refunded)

58%

Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polokwane City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 74 matches

Bloem Celtic away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.47 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polokwane City attack 1.00 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bloem Celtic attack 1.02 + Polokwane City defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Polokwane City scores more

41%

level

29%

Bloem Celtic scores more

30%

Polokwane City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Polokwane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff