Bloem Celtic 0–0 Polokwane City: Result & Stats

Bloem Celtic

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Polokwane City

8/30/2020

Premier Soccer League · Round 23ABSA Tuks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Bloem Celtic45%

×Draw30%

Polokwane City26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bloem CelticExpected goals in this matchPolokwane City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.84

Bloem Celtic

1.21

Polokwane City

0.84

Bloem Celtic creates 44% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 75 away

1.38

creates per match

0.68

1.00

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Bloem Celtic

1.38

Polokwane City

0.68

allows per match

Bloem Celtic

1.00

Polokwane City

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bloem Celtic+0.00on par

Polokwane City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bloem Celtic ↓

Polokwane City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Bloem Celtic or draw

74%

Bloem Celtic or Polokwane City

70%

Draw or Polokwane City

55%

Winning margin

Bloem Celtic wins by 2+

20%

Polokwane City wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bloem Celtic 1+ goals

70%

Bloem Celtic 2+ goals

34%

Bloem Celtic 3+ goals

12%

Polokwane City 1+ goals

57%

Polokwane City 2+ goals

21%

Polokwane City 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Bloem Celtic (draw refunded)

64%

Polokwane City (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bloem Celtic at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 45 matches

Polokwane City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.05 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bloem Celtic attack 1.38 + Polokwane City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.21

Polokwane City attack 0.68 + Bloem Celtic defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bloem Celtic scores more

45%

level

30%

Polokwane City scores more

26%

Bloem Celtic at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bloem Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff