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Polokwane City vs Black Leopards — Premier Soccer League 2018

Polokwane City
Polokwane City
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Black Leopards
Black Leopards
4/7/2019Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 20Peter Mokaba Stadium (Polokwane (Pietersburg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Polokwane City48%
×Draw27%
Black Leopards25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Polokwane City
1.41
Black Leopards
0.93

Polokwane City creates 52% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 47 away

creates per match

Polokwane City
1.00
Black Leopards
0.87

allows per match

Polokwane City
0.99
Black Leopards
1.81

finishing

Polokwane City+0.00on par
Black Leopards+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polokwane City ↓

Black Leopards →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Polokwane City or draw
75%
Polokwane City or Black Leopards
73%
Draw or Black Leopards
52%

Winning margin

Polokwane City wins by 2+
23%
Black Leopards wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Polokwane City 1+ goals
76%
Polokwane City 2+ goals
41%
Polokwane City 3+ goals
17%
Black Leopards 1+ goals
61%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
24%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Polokwane City (draw refunded)
66%
Black Leopards (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Polokwane City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.99 · 74 matches

Black Leopards away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.81 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Polokwane City attack 1.00 + Black Leopards defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.41

Black Leopards attack 0.87 + Polokwane City defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Polokwane City scores more
48%
level
27%
Black Leopards scores more
25%

Polokwane City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Polokwane City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Polokwane City 3–1 Black Leopards

Polokwane City beat Black Leopards 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on April 7, 2019.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium (Polokwane (Pietersburg)).