Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Black Leopards vs Polokwane City — Premier Soccer League 2018

Black Leopards
Black Leopards
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Polokwane City
Polokwane City
8/4/2018Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 1Peter Mokaba Stadium (Polokwane (Pietersburg))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Black Leopards37%
×Draw31%
Polokwane City32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Black Leopards
1.02
Polokwane City
0.92

Black Leopards creates 11% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 75 away

creates per match

Black Leopards
1.00
Polokwane City
0.68

allows per match

Black Leopards
1.15
Polokwane City
1.05

finishing

Black Leopards+0.00on par
Polokwane City+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Black Leopards ↓

Polokwane City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Black Leopards or draw
68%
Black Leopards or Polokwane City
69%
Draw or Polokwane City
63%

Winning margin

Black Leopards wins by 2+
14%
Polokwane City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Black Leopards 1+ goals
64%
Black Leopards 2+ goals
27%
Black Leopards 3+ goals
8%
Polokwane City 1+ goals
60%
Polokwane City 2+ goals
23%
Polokwane City 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Black Leopards (draw refunded)
54%
Polokwane City (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Black Leopards at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.15 · 47 matches

Polokwane City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.05 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Black Leopards attack 1.00 + Polokwane City defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Polokwane City attack 0.68 + Black Leopards defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Black Leopards scores more
37%
level
31%
Polokwane City scores more
32%

Black Leopards at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Black Leopards will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier Soccer League: Black Leopards 1–0 Polokwane City

Black Leopards beat Polokwane City 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on August 4, 2018.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium (Polokwane (Pietersburg)).