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Politehnica Iasi vs Petrolul Ploiesti — Liga I 2026

Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Petrolul Ploiesti
Petrolul Ploiesti
5/12/2024Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 9Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Politehnica Iasi39%
×Draw29%
Petrolul Ploiesti32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Politehnica Iasi
1.17
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.04

Politehnica Iasi creates 13% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 77 away

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.11
Petrolul Ploiesti
0.78

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.30
Petrolul Ploiesti
1.23

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par
Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

Petrolul Ploiesti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw
68%
Politehnica Iasi or Petrolul Ploiesti
71%
Draw or Petrolul Ploiesti
61%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
16%
Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
69%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
33%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
11%
Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals
65%
Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals
28%
Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
55%
Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

Petrolul Ploiesti away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.23 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.17

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 0.78 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more
39%
level
29%
Petrolul Ploiesti scores more
32%

Politehnica Iasi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Politehnica Iasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Politehnica Iasi 2–0 Petrolul Ploiesti

Politehnica Iasi beat Petrolul Ploiesti 2-0 in Liga I on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu in Iaşi.