Petrolul Ploiesti 3–1 Politehnica Iasi

Petrolul Ploiesti

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Politehnica Iasi

10/26/2024

Liga I · Round 14Stadionul Ilie Oană

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Petrolul Ploiesti46%

×Draw27%

Politehnica Iasi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Petrolul PloiestiExpected goals in this matchPolitehnica Iasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.00

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.38

Politehnica Iasi

1.00

Petrolul Ploiesti creates 38% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 100 away

1.09

creates per match

0.87

1.13

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.09

Politehnica Iasi

0.87

allows per match

Petrolul Ploiesti

1.13

Politehnica Iasi

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Petrolul Ploiesti+0.00on par

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Petrolul Ploiesti ↓

Politehnica Iasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Petrolul Ploiesti or draw

73%

Petrolul Ploiesti or Politehnica Iasi

73%

Draw or Politehnica Iasi

54%

Winning margin

Petrolul Ploiesti wins by 2+

22%

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Petrolul Ploiesti 1+ goals

75%

Petrolul Ploiesti 2+ goals

40%

Petrolul Ploiesti 3+ goals

16%

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals

63%

Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals

26%

Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Petrolul Ploiesti (draw refunded)

63%

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Petrolul Ploiesti at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Petrolul Ploiesti attack 1.09 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.38

Politehnica Iasi attack 0.87 + Petrolul Ploiesti defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Petrolul Ploiesti scores more

46%

level

27%

Politehnica Iasi scores more

27%

Petrolul Ploiesti at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Petrolul Ploiesti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff