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Politehnica Iasi vs Oţelul — Liga I 2026

Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Oţelul
Oţelul
11/3/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 15Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Politehnica Iasi34%
×Draw28%
Oţelul38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Politehnica Iasi
1.13
Oţelul
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 58 away

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.11
Oţelul
1.10

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.30
Oţelul
1.14

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par
Oţelul+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

Oţelul →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw
62%
Politehnica Iasi or Oţelul
72%
Draw or Oţelul
66%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
14%
Oţelul wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
68%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
31%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
11%
Oţelul 1+ goals
70%
Oţelul 2+ goals
34%
Oţelul 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
48%
Oţelul (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

Oţelul away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + Oţelul defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Oţelul attack 1.10 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more
34%
level
28%
Oţelul scores more
38%

Oţelul at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Politehnica Iasi 2–1 Oţelul

Politehnica Iasi beat Oţelul 2-1 in Liga I on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu in Iaşi.