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Oţelul vs Politehnica Iasi — Liga I 2026

Oţelul
Oţelul
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
3/7/2025Liga ILiga I · Round 30Stadionul Oţelul

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Oţelul48%
×Draw27%
Politehnica Iasi25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Oţelul
1.42
Politehnica Iasi
0.96

Oţelul creates 48% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 100 away

creates per match

Oţelul
1.18
Politehnica Iasi
0.87

allows per match

Oţelul
1.05
Politehnica Iasi
1.67

finishing

Oţelul+0.00on par
Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Oţelul ↓

Politehnica Iasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Oţelul or draw
75%
Oţelul or Politehnica Iasi
73%
Draw or Politehnica Iasi
52%

Winning margin

Oţelul wins by 2+
23%
Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Oţelul 1+ goals
76%
Oţelul 2+ goals
41%
Oţelul 3+ goals
17%
Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
62%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
25%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Oţelul (draw refunded)
65%
Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Oţelul at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Oţelul attack 1.18 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Politehnica Iasi attack 0.87 + Oţelul defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Oţelul scores more
48%
level
27%
Politehnica Iasi scores more
25%

Oţelul at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Oţelul will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Oţelul 2–3 Politehnica Iasi

Politehnica Iasi beat Oţelul 3-2 in Liga I on March 7, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Oţelul in Galaţi.