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Politehnica Iasi vs GAZ Metan Medias — Liga I 2018

Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
GAZ Metan Medias
GAZ Metan Medias
12/14/2019Liga ILiga I · Round 21Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Politehnica Iasi43%
×Draw27%
GAZ Metan Medias30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Politehnica Iasi
1.35
GAZ Metan Medias
1.09

Politehnica Iasi creates 24% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 76 away

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.11
GAZ Metan Medias
0.89

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.30
GAZ Metan Medias
1.59

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par
GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

GAZ Metan Medias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw
70%
Politehnica Iasi or GAZ Metan Medias
73%
Draw or GAZ Metan Medias
57%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
20%
GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
74%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
39%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
15%
GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals
66%
GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals
30%
GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
59%
GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

GAZ Metan Medias away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.35

GAZ Metan Medias attack 0.89 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more
43%
level
27%
GAZ Metan Medias scores more
30%

Politehnica Iasi at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Politehnica Iasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Politehnica Iasi vs GAZ Metan Medias

GAZ Metan Medias beat Politehnica Iasi 2-1 in Liga I on December 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu in Iaşi.