GAZ Metan Medias 3–2 Politehnica Iasi

GAZ Metan Medias

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Politehnica Iasi

8/31/2019

Liga I · Round 8Stadionul Municipal Gaz Metan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

GAZ Metan Medias46%

×Draw26%

Politehnica Iasi27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GAZ Metan MediasExpected goals in this matchPolitehnica Iasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.04

GAZ Metan Medias

1.45

Politehnica Iasi

1.04

GAZ Metan Medias creates 39% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 100 away

1.23

creates per match

0.87

1.21

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

GAZ Metan Medias

1.23

Politehnica Iasi

0.87

allows per match

GAZ Metan Medias

1.21

Politehnica Iasi

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

GAZ Metan Medias+0.00on par

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

GAZ Metan Medias ↓

Politehnica Iasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

GAZ Metan Medias or draw

73%

GAZ Metan Medias or Politehnica Iasi

74%

Draw or Politehnica Iasi

54%

Winning margin

GAZ Metan Medias wins by 2+

23%

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

GAZ Metan Medias 1+ goals

77%

GAZ Metan Medias 2+ goals

42%

GAZ Metan Medias 3+ goals

18%

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals

65%

Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals

28%

Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

GAZ Metan Medias (draw refunded)

63%

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

GAZ Metan Medias at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.21 · 77 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

GAZ Metan Medias attack 1.23 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.45

Politehnica Iasi attack 0.87 + GAZ Metan Medias defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

GAZ Metan Medias scores more

46%

level

26%

Politehnica Iasi scores more

27%

GAZ Metan Medias at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "GAZ Metan Medias will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff