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Politehnica Iasi vs FCSB — Liga I 2026

Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
FCSB
FCSB
12/19/2023Liga ILiga I · Round 21Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Politehnica Iasi29%
×Draw27%
FCSB44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Politehnica Iasi
1.09
FCSB
1.41

FCSB creates 29% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 155 away

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.11
FCSB
1.51

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.30
FCSB
1.07

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par
FCSB+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

FCSB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw
56%
Politehnica Iasi or FCSB
73%
Draw or FCSB
71%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
11%
FCSB wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
66%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
30%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
10%
FCSB 1+ goals
76%
FCSB 2+ goals
41%
FCSB 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
40%
FCSB (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.07 · 155 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + FCSB defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.09

FCSB attack 1.51 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more
29%
level
27%
FCSB scores more
44%

FCSB at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Politehnica Iasi vs FCSB

FCSB beat Politehnica Iasi 3-1 in Liga I on December 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu in Iaşi.