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FCSB vs Politehnica Iasi — Liga I 2026

FCSB
FCSB
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
8/20/2023Liga ILiga I · Round 6Arena Naţională

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

FCSB57%
×Draw23%
Politehnica Iasi20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FCSB
1.76
Politehnica Iasi
0.93

FCSB creates 89% more chances

Season form · 155 home / 100 away

creates per match

FCSB
1.85
Politehnica Iasi
0.87

allows per match

FCSB
0.98
Politehnica Iasi
1.67

finishing

FCSB+0.00on par
Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FCSB ↓

Politehnica Iasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FCSB or draw
80%
FCSB or Politehnica Iasi
77%
Draw or Politehnica Iasi
43%

Winning margin

FCSB wins by 2+
32%
Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

FCSB 1+ goals
83%
FCSB 2+ goals
52%
FCSB 3+ goals
26%
Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
61%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
24%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FCSB (draw refunded)
74%
Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FCSB at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.98 · 155 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FCSB attack 1.85 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.76

Politehnica Iasi attack 0.87 + FCSB defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

FCSB scores more
57%
level
23%
Politehnica Iasi scores more
20%

FCSB at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "FCSB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FCSB vs Politehnica Iasi

FCSB beat Politehnica Iasi 2-1 in Liga I on August 20, 2023.

The match was played at Arena Naţională in Bucureşti.