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Politehnica Iasi vs FCSB — Liga I 2026

Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FCSB
FCSB
12/3/2019Liga ILiga I · Round 19Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Politehnica Iasi40%
×Draw24%
FCSB36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Politehnica Iasi
1.55
FCSB
1.47

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.35
FCSB
1.75

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.19
FCSB
1.75

finishing

Politehnica Iasi-0.02on par
FCSB+0.14scores more

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

FCSB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw
64%
Politehnica Iasi or FCSB
76%
Draw or FCSB
60%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
19%
FCSB wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
79%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
46%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
20%
FCSB 1+ goals
77%
FCSB 2+ goals
43%
FCSB 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
52%
FCSB (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.19 · 6 matches

FCSB away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.75 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.35 + FCSB defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.55

FCSB attack 1.75 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more
40%
level
24%
FCSB scores more
36%

Politehnica Iasi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Politehnica Iasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Politehnica Iasi 1–2 FCSB

FCSB beat Politehnica Iasi 2-1 in Liga I on December 3, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu in Iaşi.