Politehnica Iasi 1–0 FC Botosani: Result & Stats

Politehnica Iasi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Botosani

M. Bordeianu 6'

7/19/2024

Liga I · Round 2Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Politehnica Iasi54%

×Draw24%

FC Botosani22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Politehnica IasiExpected goals in this matchFC Botosani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.98

Politehnica Iasi

1.70

FC Botosani

0.98

Politehnica Iasi creates 73% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

1.35

creates per match

0.78

1.19

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi

1.35

FC Botosani

0.78

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi

1.19

FC Botosani

2.05

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Politehnica Iasi-0.02on par

FC Botosani-0.05on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

FC Botosani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw

78%

Politehnica Iasi or FC Botosani

76%

Draw or FC Botosani

46%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+

30%

FC Botosani wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals

82%

Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals

51%

Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals

24%

FC Botosani 1+ goals

62%

FC Botosani 2+ goals

26%

FC Botosani 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)

71%

FC Botosani (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.19 · 6 matches

FC Botosani away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.05 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.35 + FC Botosani defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.70

FC Botosani attack 0.78 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more

54%

level

24%

FC Botosani scores more

22%

Politehnica Iasi at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Politehnica Iasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

37

M. Bordeianu

Politehnica Iasi · M

7.9

Match Events

-5'

Shayon Harrison

6'

M. Bordeianu↳ T. Todoroski

46'

R. Benzar← G. David

53'

Z. Mitrov← R. Benzar

69'

Sebastian Mailat

70'

L. Mihai← Ș. Ștefanovici

70'

V. Gheorghe← S. Harrison

70'

L. Fülöp← J. Mouaddib

70'

75'

81'

87'

89'

D. Ștefan← Ș. Bodișteanu

90+1'

D. Atanaskoski← A. Roman

90+1'

Cláudio Silva← Tailson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PolitehnicaFC

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots4

0.75Expected Goals (xG)0.36

5Corners2

13Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots4

5On Target1

3Off Target2

3Blocked1

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box0

Passing

50%Possession50%

376Total Passes368

271Accurate Passes248

72%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1