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FC Botosani vs Politehnica Iasi — Liga I 2026

FC Botosani
FC Botosani
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
2/2/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 24Stadionul Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

FC Botosani49%
×Draw26%
Politehnica Iasi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Botosani
1.48
Politehnica Iasi
0.95

FC Botosani creates 56% more chances

Season form · 156 home / 100 away

creates per match

FC Botosani
1.30
Politehnica Iasi
0.87

allows per match

FC Botosani
1.03
Politehnica Iasi
1.67

finishing

FC Botosani+0.00on par
Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Botosani ↓

Politehnica Iasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FC Botosani or draw
76%
FC Botosani or Politehnica Iasi
74%
Draw or Politehnica Iasi
51%

Winning margin

FC Botosani wins by 2+
25%
Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

FC Botosani 1+ goals
77%
FC Botosani 2+ goals
43%
FC Botosani 3+ goals
19%
Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
61%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
25%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

FC Botosani (draw refunded)
67%
Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Botosani at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.03 · 156 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Botosani attack 1.30 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Politehnica Iasi attack 0.87 + FC Botosani defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

FC Botosani scores more
49%
level
26%
Politehnica Iasi scores more
24%

FC Botosani at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "FC Botosani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Botosani vs Politehnica Iasi

FC Botosani beat Politehnica Iasi 2-1 in Liga I on February 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal in Botoşani.