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Politehnica Iasi vs Dinamo Bucuresti — Liga I 2026

Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti
3/1/2024Liga ILiga I · Round 29Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Politehnica Iasi42%
×Draw27%
Dinamo Bucuresti31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Politehnica Iasi
1.37
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.15

Politehnica Iasi creates 19% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 138 away

creates per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.11
Dinamo Bucuresti
0.99

allows per match

Politehnica Iasi
1.30
Dinamo Bucuresti
1.62

finishing

Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par
Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Politehnica Iasi ↓

Dinamo Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Politehnica Iasi or draw
69%
Politehnica Iasi or Dinamo Bucuresti
73%
Draw or Dinamo Bucuresti
58%

Winning margin

Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
20%
Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
75%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
40%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
16%
Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals
68%
Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals
32%
Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
57%
Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Politehnica Iasi at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.30 · 96 matches

Dinamo Bucuresti away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.62 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Politehnica Iasi attack 1.11 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.37

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 0.99 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Politehnica Iasi scores more
42%
level
27%
Dinamo Bucuresti scores more
31%

Politehnica Iasi at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Politehnica Iasi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga I: Politehnica Iasi 0–0 Dinamo Bucuresti

Politehnica Iasi and Dinamo Bucuresti drew 0-0 in Liga I on March 1, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Emil Alexandrescu in Iaşi.