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Dinamo Bucuresti vs Politehnica Iasi — Liga I 2026

Dinamo Bucuresti
Dinamo Bucuresti
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Politehnica Iasi
Politehnica Iasi
4/14/2024Liga ILiga I · Relegation Round - 4Stadionul Arcul de Triumf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Dinamo Bucuresti49%
×Draw26%
Politehnica Iasi24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.48
Politehnica Iasi
0.95

Dinamo Bucuresti creates 56% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 100 away

creates per match

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.28
Politehnica Iasi
0.87

allows per match

Dinamo Bucuresti
1.02
Politehnica Iasi
1.67

finishing

Dinamo Bucuresti+0.00on par
Politehnica Iasi+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Bucuresti ↓

Politehnica Iasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dinamo Bucuresti or draw
76%
Dinamo Bucuresti or Politehnica Iasi
74%
Draw or Politehnica Iasi
51%

Winning margin

Dinamo Bucuresti wins by 2+
25%
Politehnica Iasi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Dinamo Bucuresti 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Bucuresti 2+ goals
43%
Dinamo Bucuresti 3+ goals
19%
Politehnica Iasi 1+ goals
61%
Politehnica Iasi 2+ goals
25%
Politehnica Iasi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Bucuresti (draw refunded)
67%
Politehnica Iasi (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Bucuresti at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.02 · 136 matches

Politehnica Iasi away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.67 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Bucuresti attack 1.28 + Politehnica Iasi defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.48

Politehnica Iasi attack 0.87 + Dinamo Bucuresti defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dinamo Bucuresti scores more
49%
level
26%
Politehnica Iasi scores more
24%

Dinamo Bucuresti at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dinamo Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Bucuresti vs Politehnica Iasi

Dinamo Bucuresti beat Politehnica Iasi 1-0 in Liga I on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadionul Arcul de Triumf in București.