Polideportivo Almería 0–0 Motril: Result & Stats

Polideportivo Almería

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Motril

11/26/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 12Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Polideportivo Almería34%

×Draw28%

Motril38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchMotril

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.23

Polideportivo Almería

1.16

Motril

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 112 away

1.26

creates per match

1.18

1.27

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Motril

1.18

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Motril

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Motril+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Motril →

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

62%

Polideportivo Almería or Motril

72%

Draw or Motril

66%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

14%

Motril wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

69%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

32%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

11%

Motril 1+ goals

71%

Motril 2+ goals

35%

Motril 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

48%

Motril (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Motril away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.05 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Motril defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.16

Motril attack 1.18 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 38%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

34%

level

28%

Motril scores more

38%

Motril at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

A. El Baroudi← Álex Medina

46'

Mario Alonso← Raúl

61'

Toni García← Pablo Muñoz

72'

Álvaro Cruz← J. Randal

72'

Moussa← Pablo Checa

80'

S. Wasiu← Miguel Cobo

80'

Joaquín Campos← Niki

86'

Córdoba← Campanas

86'

Álvaro de la Rosa← Juanmi Villegas

Polideportivo

Motril

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Carlos Hinojo

33'▲A. El Baroudi←▼Álex Medina

72'▲Álvaro Cruz←▼J. Randal

72'▲Moussa←▼Pablo Checa

86'▲Córdoba←▼Campanas

86'▲Álvaro de la Rosa←▼Juanmi Villegas

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

BaroudiCruzMoussaCórdobaRosa

Manager: Fran Maldonado

46'▲Mario Alonso←▼Raúl

61'▲Toni García←▼Pablo Muñoz

80'▲S. Wasiu←▼Miguel Cobo

80'▲Joaquín Campos←▼Niki

Motril substitutes

AlonsoGarcíaWasiuCampos

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Motril

Polideportivo Almería and Motril drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles in Almería.

Polideportivo Almería vs Motril — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Polideportivo Almería vs Motril