Motril 3–1 Polideportivo Almería: Result & Stats

Motril

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Polideportivo Almería

Miguel Martín 90+5'

Y. Yalike 44'

Óscar Lozano 27'

Álvaro Cruz 73'

5/23/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2nd Phase - 8Estadio Escribano Castilla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Motril58%

×Draw23%

Polideportivo Almería19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MotrilExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

0.93

Motril

1.81

Polideportivo Almería

0.93

Motril creates 95% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 63 away

1.76

creates per match

0.84

1.01

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Motril

1.76

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Motril

1.01

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Motril+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motril ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Motril or draw

81%

Motril or Polideportivo Almería

77%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

42%

Winning margin

Motril wins by 2+

33%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

Team goals

Motril 1+ goals

84%

Motril 2+ goals

54%

Motril 3+ goals

27%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

61%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

24%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Motril (draw refunded)

75%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Motril at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.01 · 112 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Motril attack 1.76 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Motril defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Motril scores more

58%

level

23%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

19%

Motril at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Motril will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

Óscar Lozano

44'

Y. Yalike

46'

Kevin Torres← Pinteño

46'

Alberto Segura← Luis Suanes

46'

Manolo← Alonso

65'

Ablaye← José Carlos

69'

Álvaro Cruz← Antonio Hernández

72'

Paquito← Óscar Lozano

73'

Álvaro Cruz

86'

Miguel Martín← Juanfran

90+5'

Miguel Martín

Motril

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: José Manuel García

72'▲Paquito←▼Óscar Lozano

86'▲Miguel Martín←▼Juanfran

Motril substitutes

PaquitoMartín

Manager: Ricardo García

46'▲Kevin Torres←▼Pinteño

46'▲Alberto Segura←▼Luis Suanes

46'▲Manolo←▼Alonso

65'▲Ablaye←▼José Carlos

69'▲Álvaro Cruz←▼Antonio Hernández

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

TorresSeguraManoloAblayeCruz

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Motril 3–1 Polideportivo Almería

Motril beat Polideportivo Almería 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 23, 2021.

Goals: Óscar Lozano (27'), Y. Yalike (44'), Álvaro Cruz (73'), Miguel Martín (90+5').

The match was played at Estadio Escribano Castilla in Motril.

Motril vs Polideportivo Almería — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Motril 3–1 Polideportivo Almería